I. 模型意义(Significance of the model)

泊松分布的参数λ是单位时间(即一场比赛)内随机事件（进球）的平均发生次数。 泊松分布适合于描述单位时间内随机事件发生的次数。

The parameter λ of the Poisson distribution is the average number of occurrences of a random event (goals) per unit of time (i.e., a game). The Poisson distribution is suitable for describing the number of times a random event occurs in a unit of time.

泊松分布结合历史数据，可以计算足球比赛中可能的进球数。 使用简单的泊松分布公式计算任何给定的足球比赛得分或结果的概率，然后将结果与赔率的概率进行比较，从而发现价值。

The Poisson distribution combined with historical data allows you to calculate the number of possible goals scored in a soccer match. Use the simple Poisson distribution formula to calculate the probability of scoring a goal or result in any given soccer match, then compare the result to the odds to find value.

II. 参数计算(Calculation of parameters)

在使用泊松计算可能的赛果前，我们需要计算在比赛中各队可能的平均进球数，得出的平均值用于判断各队的“进攻实力”和“防守实力”，然后两相比较。

Before using Poisson to calculate possible outcomes, we need to calculate the average number of goals that each team might score in a game, and the resulting average is used to determine each team's "offensive" and "defensive" strengths, and then compare the two.

计算进攻和防守实力时，选择代表性数据范围非常重要。如果范围太大，数据将偏离队伍目前的实力。如果范围太小，异常值会影响数据的准确性。我们采用各自联赛的主/客场平均进球数作为联赛平均值。

When calculating attack and defenth strengths, it is important to choose a representative data range. If the range is too large, the data will deviate from the team's current strength. If the range is too small, outliers will affect the accuracy of the data. We use the average number of goals scored at Home/Away in their respective leagues as the league average.

1. 计算进攻实力(Calculating attack strength)

首先确定每支球队在主场和在客场的平均进球数，我们提供了球队近30场和近10场两种参数，分别描述球队的平均实力和近期状态，以便更好分析比赛结果

First determine the average number of goals scored by each team at home and away, we provide two parameters, the team's last 30 matches and the last 10 matches, describing the team's average strength and recent form, respectively, in order to better analyze the results of the matches.

然后使用（球队平均值/联赛平均值）构成球队的主/客场进攻实力

Then use (team's averages/league's averages) to form the team's Home/Away Attack

2. 计算防守实力(Calculate the strength of the defense)

·首先确定每支球队在主场和在客场的平均失球数

First determine the average number of goals each team concedes at home and away.

·其次将联赛平均数互换位置（因为主场进球数将等于客场输球数）

Secondly swap the league averages around (as the number of goals scored at home will equal the number of goals lost away)

·然后使用（球队平均值/联赛平均值）构成球队的主/客场防守实力

Then use (team averages/league averages) to form the team's Home/Away Defense.

3. 计算主场球队的可能进球数(Calculate the number of possible goals scored by the home team)

主队可能进球数(λ) = 主队主场进攻实力 X 客队客场防守实力 X 联赛平均主场进球数

Home xG(λ) = Home Attack X Away Defense X League's Home goals AVG

4. 计算客场球队的可能进球数(Calculate the number of possible goals scored by the away team)

客队可能进球数(λ) = 客队客场进攻实力 X 主队主场防守实力 X 联赛平均客场进球数

Away xG(λ) = Away Attack X Home Defense X League's Away goals AVG

III. 泊松概率计算(Calculation of Poisson probability)

使用各自的λ作为参数，在随机变量x=0...7(不同的进球数量)时，工具将描述球队进X个球的机率

Using the respective λ as a parameter, for the random variable x = 0.... .7 (different number of goals), the tool will characterize the chances of a team scoring X goals

将各自进X球的概率进行一个列表乘积，即可获得此场比赛某一比分的发生几率

The probability of each scoring X goals is obtained by multiplying a list of the probabilities of the occurrence of a certain score in this game

IV. 工具使用(Use of tools)

当然，这些看起来很复杂的计算你不必要担心，只需要知道计算原理即可。我们的工具已经为您做好了这一切计算！

Of course, you don't need to worry about these seemingly complicated calculations, you just need to know how they work. Our tool has already done all this calculation for you!

现在，你只需要选择上方对应联赛对阵，进入相应的联赛，选择你需要分析的比赛主客场球队，点击确定即可直观的看到计算结果。

Now, all you need to do is select the corresponding league matchup above, enter the corresponding league, select the match you need to analyze, and click 'Detail' to visualize the calculation results.