Poisson Football Score Prediction Tutorial 3:Tutorial for VIP users
我们的泊松概率值以球队最近10场主客场比赛中进球数作为历史数据库,通过算法计算出当前比赛的xG值,并基于泊松分布公式,进一步计算出具体进球数、比分以及胜平负的概率。
Our Poisson probability value is based on the number of goals scored in the team's recent 10 home/away games as the historical data base, and the team's xG for the current game is calculated by the algorithm, and further based on the Poisson distribution formula, the probability of the specific number of goals scored, the score, and the win/draw/loss is calculated.
本篇教程主要介绍VIP用户对我们小程序的使用方法。
This tutorial focuses on how VIP users can use the site.
1. 新注册用户在验证电子邮件地址后,自动获得一次我们提供的 3 天VIP试用时间,功能与正式 VIP 用户相同。VIP 用户可以使用网站的所有功能。
Newly registered users, after verifying their e-mail address, are automatically granted a 3-day VIP trial with the same functionality as full VIP users, who have access to all features of the site.
2. 首页上有一个 "Today "列表,您可以点击 "Detail"按钮查看此比赛的具体分析数据。也可以点击列表顶部右侧的 "All "按钮,进入完整的比赛列表,查看想要分析的比赛。
On the home page there is a "Today" list, you can click on the "Detail" button to see the specific analyzed data of the match. You can also click the "All" button on the right side of the top of the list to enter the complete list of matches and see the matches you want to analyze.
3. 如果在 "Today "中没有看到您需要的比赛,您可以进入网站导航栏的 "All Tournaments "菜单,进入所有联赛页面,在页面上快速搜索联赛名称或国家名称,点击相应链接进入联赛轮次和比赛列表,找到比赛,然后点击 "Detail "按钮进入比赛详细分析。
If you don't see the match you need in "Today", you can go to the "All Leagues Pro" menu in the navigation bar of the website to enter the page of all leagues, quickly search for the name of the league or the country on the page, click on the corresponding link to enter the league rounds and the list of matches, find the match, and then Click on the "Detailed" button to access the detailed analysis of the match.
4. 下面介绍一下详细数据页面基本的数据、图表意义与大致用法
The following describes the basic data, chart meaning and general usage of the detailed data page
(1).页面数据的基本含义(Basic meaning of page data)
(2). 数据特征图表的涵义(Meaning of Data Characterization Chart)
(3). 大概的使用方法(Approximate method of use):
(3.1). 查看数据详情页面的“xG D-value”,然后点击“Data Analysis”按钮,看最左边后一个“xG D-value Statisticians”图表,找到这个差值对应的那列图形,初步了解一下结果分布
Check the "xG D-value" on the detail page, then click the "Data Analysis" button, and look at the last "xG D-value Statisticians" chart, find the column of the graph corresponding to this difference, and get a preliminary understanding of the distribution of results.
(3.2). 根据“Chart of the Home Team's Goals D-value”图表预估主队实际进球数(Estimated actual goals scored by the home team according to the "Chart of the Home Team's Goals D-value"):
(3.2.1). 点击“Data Analysis”按钮,在图表弹层上,查看右侧第二个图表,分析最近主队“Goals D-value”趋势,对本场可能的实际进球进行一个预估。
Click on the "Data Analysis" button and on the chart pop-up layer, look at the second chart on the right to analyze the recent "Goals D-value" trend of the home team and make a prediction of the actual goals that may be scored in this game. Make an estimate of the actual goals likely to be scored in this match.
①. 如果你认为这场比赛,“Actual Goals”会比“xG”多,那么,取一个正数的平均值(最大和最小的中间值),加上主队的“xG”,和值(四舍五入取整)就是本场比赛主队最可能的实际进球。
If you think there will be more "Actual Goals" than "xG" in this game, then take the average of a positive number (the middle of the maximum and minimum), add the home team's "xG ". The sum (rounded to the nearest whole number) is the most likely actual goals scored by the home team in the match.
②. 如果你认为这场比赛,“Actual Goals”会比“xG”少,那么,取一个负数的平均值(最大和最小的中间值),用主队的“xG”减去这个平均值,差值(四舍五入取整)就是主队本场比赛最可能的实际进球。
If you think that "Actual Goals" will be less than "xG" for this game, then take the average of the negative numbers (the middle of the maximum and minimum) and subtract this average from the "xG" of the home team, and the difference (rounded to the nearest whole number) is the most likely actual goals scored by the home team for this match.
(3.3). 根据“Chart of the Away Team's Goals D-value”图表预估客队实际进球数(Estimated actual goals scored by the away team according to the "Chart of the Away Team's Goals D-value"):
(3.2.1). 点击“Data Analysis”按钮,在图表弹层上,查看右侧第四个图表,分析最近客队“Goals D-value”趋势,对本场可能的实际进球进行一个预估。
Click on the "Data Analysis" button and on the chart pop-up layer, look at the fourth chart on the right to analyze the recent "Goals D-value" trend of the away team and make a prediction of the actual goals that may be scored in this game. Make an estimate of the actual goals likely to be scored in this match.
①. 如果你认为这场比赛,“Actual Goals”会比“xG”多,那么,取一个正数的平均值(最大和最小的中间值),加上客队的“xG”,和值(四舍五入取整)就是本场比赛主队最可能的实际进球。
If you think there will be more "Actual Goals" than "xG" in this game, then take the average of a positive number (the middle of the maximum and minimum), add the away team's "xG ", The sum (rounded to the nearest whole number) is the most likely actual goals scored by the away team in the match.
②. 如果你认为这场比赛,“Actual Goals”会比“xG”少,那么,取一个负数的平均值(最大和最小的中间值),用客队的“xG”减去这个平均值,差值(四舍五入取整)就是客队本场比赛最可能的实际进球。
If you think that "Actual Goals" will be less than "xG" for this game, then take the average of the negative numbers (the middle of the maximum and minimum) and subtract this average from the "xG" of the away team, and the difference (rounded to the nearest whole number) is the most likely actual goals scored by the away team for this game.
(3.4) 列出主客两队的可能进球数,计算可能的总进球、比分:
List the number of possible goals scored by the home and visiting teams, calculate the total possible goals scored, the score:
根据上面两个图举例的比赛,最终:
The final based on the two chart examples of the matches above:
主队可能进球(Home team may score):2,4,3
客队可能进球(Away team may score):0,2
总进球既可能是(Estimated Total Goals):2, 3, 4, 5, 6
比分列举有(Estimated Correct Scores):2:0 2:2 4:0 4:2 3:0 3:2
(3.5) 查看3.4计算出来的总进球、比分在概率,对比"Statistical characteristics of the league"图表,把不太可能的结果排除,然后剩余的总进球、比分即为最可能出现的结果,并且对胜平负进行判断。
Check the total goals and scores calculated in (setup 3.4) in the probability, compared to the "Statistical characteristics of the league" chart, the unlikely results are excluded, and then the remaining Goals and Correct Scores that is the most likely outcome, and to determine the winners and losers.
The final prediction is:
Goals: 3,4,2
Correct Scores: 2:0, 3:0, 4:0
W/D/L: W
当然这个使用思路只是其中之一,当您明白了各个图表,数据的意义之后,可以有您自己的分析排除方法。
Of course, this is only one of the ideas, when you understand the significance of the charts and data, you can have your own analysis and elimination methods.
再次提醒:泊松分布有其局限性,可以作为辅助分析工具,不能完全替代对一场比赛的分析。基本上任何数据统计都只能反应大部分的数据规律,但是单场比赛还是需要仔细分析判断。
Reminder again: Poisson distribution has its limitations, can be used as an auxiliary analysis tool, can not completely replace the analysis of a game. Basically, any statistics can only respond to most of the data pattern, but a single game or need to carefully analyze the judgment.
祝大家好运!
Good luck to everyone!