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The parameter λ of the Poisson distribution is the average number of occurrences of a random event (goals) per unit of time (i.e., a game). The Poisson distribution is suitable for describing the number of times a random event occurs in a unit of time.
The Poisson distribution combined with historical data allows you to calculate the number of possible goals scored in a soccer match. Use the simple Poisson distribution formula to calculate the probability of scoring a goal or result in any given soccer match, then compare the result to the odds to find value.
Before using Poisson to calculate possible outcomes, we need to calculate the average number of goals that each team might score in a game, and the resulting average is used to determine each team's "offensive" and "defensive" strengths, and then compare the two.
When calculating attack and defenth strengths, it is important to choose a representative data range. If the range is too large, the data will deviate from the team's current strength. If the range is too small, outliers will affect the accuracy of the data. We use the average number of goals scored at Home/Away in their respective leagues as the league average.
1. Calculating attack strength
First determine the average number of goals scored by each team at home and away, we provide two parameters, the team's last 30 matches and the last 10 matches, describing the team's average strength and recent form, respectively, in order to better analyze the results of the matches
Then use (team's averages/league's averages) to form the team's Home/Away Attack
2. Calculate the strength of the defense
First determine the average number of goals each team concedes at home and away.
Secondly swap the league averages around (as the number of goals scored at home will equal the number of goals lost away)
Then use (team averages/league averages) to form the team's Home/Away Defense.
3. Calculate the number of possible goals scored by the home team
Home xG(λ) = Home Attack X Away Defense X League's Home goals AVG
4. Calculate the number of possible goals scored by the away team
Away xG(λ) = Away Attack X Home Defense X League's Away goals AVG
Using the respective λ as a parameter, for the random variable x = 0.... .7 (different number of goals), the tool will characterize the chances of a team scoring X goals
The probability of each scoring X goals is obtained by multiplying a list of the probabilities of the occurrence of a certain score in this game
Of course, you don't need to worry about these seemingly complicated calculations, you just need to know how they work. Our tool has already done all this calculation for you!
Now, all you need to do is select the corresponding league matchup above, enter the corresponding league, select the match you need to analyze, and click 'Detail' to visualize the calculation results.