Poisson Football Score Prediction Tutorial 1:Basic Tutorials
本教程主要介绍泊松模型数据的意义和网站的基本使用方法。我们的泊松概率值是以球队最近 10 场主客场比赛的进球数为历史数据基础,通过算法计算出球队当场比赛的 xG,再根据泊松分布公式,计算出具体进球数、比分和胜平负的概率。
This tutorial focuses on the significance of Poisson model data and the basic usage of the website. Our Poisson probability value is based on the number of goals scored in the team's recent 10 home/away games as the historical data base, and the team's xG for the current game is calculated by the algorithm, and further based on the Poisson distribution formula, the probability of the specific number of goals scored, the score, and the win/draw/loss is calculated.
1. 首先,您需要明白,计算出的数据是一种概率,概率值大的结果出现的可能性就大,但并不意味着一定是这个结果;在此基础上,您可以合理地使用和参考我们的工具;
First of all, you need to understand that the data calculated is a probability, the probability of a large value of the result is more likely to occur, but does not mean that it must be the result; on this basis, you can reasonably use and refer to our tools;
2. 泊松模型是一种纯粹从进球数来分析事件的实力模型,不包含比赛基本面等信息,存在局限性,不能代替对一场比赛的整体分析,是一种辅助分析工具。
Poisson model is a pure strength model from the number of goals to analyze the event, does not contain the game fundamentals and other information, there are limitations, can not replace the overall analysis of a game, is an auxiliary analysis tool.
3. 下面简要介绍我们的泊松概率的计算原理:
The following briefly describes the basis for the calculation of our Poisson probability:
我们的泊松概率值是以球队最近 10 场主场(主队算主场)或客场(客队算客场)比赛的进球数为历史数据基础,通过算法计算出球队本场比赛的预期进球数,即 xG,再进一步根据泊松分布的公式,计算出具体进球数、比分以及胜、平、负的概率。预期进球数的计算算法可参阅 "如何使用 "中的 "泊松分布概率计算模型和工具介绍 "一文。
Our Poisson probability value is based on the number of goals scored by the team in the recent 10 games at home (home team counts home games) or away (away team counts away games) as the historical data base, and through the algorithm to calculate how many goals the team is expected to score in this game, that is, xG, and then further based on the formula of the Poisson distribution, to calculate the probability of the specific number of goals scored, the score, and the win, draw, and loss. The calculation algorithm of the expected number of goals can be viewed in the article "Introduction to Poisson distribution probability calculation models and tools" in "How To Use".
4. 现在介绍我们的泊松足球比分预测工具的基本使用方法。
The basic use of the tool is now introduced.
(1). 当你进入网站时,请务必查看首页右侧的“数据更新”部分的内容提示。
When you enter the website, be sure to check the "Data Updates" section on the right side of the home page.

(2). 要确定一场比赛的胜负,我们要看 "泊松概率 "百分比,数值越大,结果出现的可能性越大。数值越大,结果出现的可能性越大。我们将详细解释数值的一些特征和图表。此外,如果你有本场比赛的赔率数据,并且赔率指向泊松概率相差较大甚至相反的方向,请查找更多信息,对本场比赛进行更多的分析。
To determine the winner of a match, we look at the "Poisson Probability" percentage, where the larger the value, the more likely the result will occur. The larger the value, the more likely the outcome. We will explain in more detail some of the characteristics and charts of the values. In addition, if you have the odds data of this game, and the odds point in the direction of the Poisson probability of a relatively large difference or even the opposite, please analyze this game.

(3). 我们的网站有部分免费的功能,您无需注册即可使用。免费联赛的入口在顶部导航栏的 "Free Tournaments "菜单中;作为免费部分的一块功能,你可以在主页上看到一些 "Today "列表的结果概率,但不能点击 "Detail "链接查看详细分析。
We have a free section of our website that you can use without registering. The entrance to the free leagues is in the "Free Leagues" menu in the top navigation bar; for the free part of the functionality, on the home page you can see some of the "Today" result probabilities, but you cannot click on the "Detail" link to see the detailed analysis.
(4). 新注册用户在验证电子邮件地址后,自动获得我们提供的 3 天试用时间,功能与正式 VIP 用户相同。VIP 用户可以使用网站的所有功能。
Newly registered users, after verifying the email address, can get our 3-day trial time, the function is the same as the official VIP users. VIP users can use all the functions of the website.
(5). 主页上有一个 "Today "列表,您可以点击 "Detail"按钮查看此比赛的具体分析数据。也可以点击列表顶部右侧的 "All "按钮,进入完整的比赛列表,查看想要分析的比赛。
On the home page there is a "Today" list, you can click on the "Detail" button to see the specific analyzed data of the match. You can also click the "All" button on the right side of the top of the list to enter the complete list of matches and see the matches you want to analyze.
(6).如果在 "Today "中没有看到您需要的比赛,您可以进入网站导航栏的 "All Tournaments "菜单,进入所有联赛页面,在页面上快速搜索联赛名称或国家名称,点击相应链接进入联赛轮次和比赛列表,找到比赛,然后点击 "Detail "按钮进入比赛详细分析。
If you don't see the match you need in "Today", you can go to the "All Leagues Pro" menu in the navigation bar of the website to enter the page of all leagues, quickly search for the name of the league or the country on the page, click on the corresponding link to enter the league rounds and the list of matches, find the match, and then Click on the "Detailed" button to access the detailed analysis of the match.
5. "How To use"栏目,是一些提供帮助使用我们网站的图文文章,可以帮助您更好地了解和使用我们的网站。
"How To use", for some of the use of graphic help articles, can assist you to better understand and use our website.
6. 个人中心,是您的会员 ID 和其他信息,重要的是 VIP 到期时间,您可以查看您的 VIP 到期日期。
Personal Center, is your member ID and other information, the important thing is the VIP expiration time, you can check your VIP expiration date.
再次提醒:泊松分布有其局限性,可以作为辅助分析工具,不能完全代替对一场比赛的分析。基本上,任何统计都只能反应大部分数据的规律,但单场比赛还是需要仔细分析判断。
Reminder again: Poisson distribution has its limitations, can be used as an auxiliary analysis tool, can not completely replace the analysis of a game. Basically, any statistics can only respond to most of the data pattern, but a single game or need to carefully analyze the judgment.
我们网站的基本使用方式介绍到此结束。下一期将为免费用户提供详细的使用教程。
This is the end of the basic introduction to the use of our website. In the next installment, there will be a detailed tutorial on how to use it for free users.
祝大家好运!
Good luck to everyone!