Introduction to the use of advanced features of the Poisson model soccer score prediction tool
POISSONFOOTBALL.COM provides professional soccer score prediction tools, using Poisson distribution formula for soccer match score prediction. The advanced features of the tool provide more convenient and intuitive reference to analyze the data. The formula calculates the probability that the home team and the away team will score n goals respectively in a certain match, which is eventually converted into the probability of each result, and then the result is compared with the probability of the European compensation company, so as to find the value.
Of course, you must understand is that: the tool calculates only the probability of a certain result, the size of the probability value only represents the probability of this result, the probability is very high, the probability of this result is relatively high, but it does not mean that it will happen; probability is very low, the probability of this result is relatively low, but it does not mean that it will not happen, so please make sure you understand the concept of probability, so that you can use the tool correctly. tool for analysis and reference.
1. Website structure
The site is divided into two functional sections: general open functions and advanced functions that require registration and payment.
. General open function mainly for the "Free leagues" matches prediction.
· Advanced features for match prediction for most of the world's top and second leagues, as well as the Champions League, UEFA Europa League, World Cup, etc.
2. Use of advanced functions
(1). To use the advanced features, you must first register as a valued VIP user of this site. We safely save your basic information for registration, used to display and identify your VIP status, temporarily do not need to use the rest of your information to reduce your operation, easy to use.
(2). After logging in, according to the matches you are interested in, you can click on the "Detail" link of the "Today" list on the home page to enter directly, if the home page does not show all the "Today" matches, please click on the right side of the "All" to enter the complete list to view; we also provide you with access to the VIP center to enter the corresponding "Today" list. and you can also use the open "Free leagues" prediction function to analyze.
(3). On the detail page, the analysis result of this match has been automatically selected and calculated for you. If you also want to see the analysis of other matches in this league, please select the names of the home and away teams (the names of the home team and the away team can not be the same) and click the "Submit" button.
(4) Data description of calculation results (meaning of key data):
①. Home/Away xG: the theoretical number of goals scored by each of the home/away team calculated according to the Poisson distribution formula model.
②. Home team win probability / draw probability / away team win probability: Poisson distribution formula model calculated according to the game win, draw, negative results of the respective probability of percentage, the results for the "score probability distribution" table below the specific sum of the probability of each win, draw, negative score.
For example: Draw% = (0:0)+(1:1)+(2:2)+(3:3)+(4:4)+(5:5)+(6:6)+(7:7)Sum of probabilities (blue probability values on the slash of the table)
③. Probability distribution of goals: the probability of the home/away team scoring a few goals in the game, calculated according to the Poisson distribution formula model.
④. Score Probability Distribution: The probability of a specific score occurring in the game, calculated according to the Poisson distribution model.
3、Basic analysis of calculation results
①. The probability of an outcome calculated by the tool; the higher the probability value, the more likely it is that the outcome will occur; the lower the probability value, the less likely it is that the outcome will occur.
②. You can compare the results calculated by this tool with the probability of the odds, if you are good at Euro analysis, you will be able to find the real direction of the game through the comparison of the difference between the two results, especially when the difference between the two results is large, there may be a cold game (Note: This method is a personal opinion, does not necessarily mean that the cold results will occur, please analyze the reference on your own, only to do the game need to pay attention to! The match is only a hint of the matches that need attention).
----------------------The following is the original Chinese version----------------------------
POISSONFOOTBALL.COM提供专业的足球比分预测工具,此工具以泊松分布公式进行足球比赛比分预测。该工具的高级功能为分析数据提供了更方便、更直观的参考。通过公式计算出来某一场比赛主队和客队分别进n个球的概率,然后将结果与欧赔公司的概率进行比较,从而发现价值。
当然,您必须明白的事情是:工具计算出来的只是某一结果的概率,概率值的大小只代表此结果产生的机率,概率很大,出现此结果的机率相对较高,但不表示一定会发生;概率很小,出现此结果的机率相对较低,但也不表示一定不会发生,所以,请您务必先理解概率的盖念,以便正确使用本工具进行分析与参考。
1、网站结构
网站总体分为普通开放功能及需要注册付费使用的高级功能两个功能板块。
·普通开放功能主要为5大联赛的比赛对阵预测
·高级功能为全球绝大部分顶级、次级联赛、以及欧冠、欧联、世界杯等赛事的比赛对阵预测
2、高级功能使用
(1)、要使用高级功能,您必须注册成为本站尊贵的VIP用户。我们安全保存您注册时的基本信息,用于显示和识别您的 VIP 身份,暂时不需要使用您的其他信息,减少您的操作,方便您使用。
(2)、登录后,根据您感兴趣的比赛,您可以点击首页 "Today "榜单的 "Detail "链接直接进入,首页没有显示所有 "Today "比赛,请点击右侧的 "All "进入完整列表查看。您也可以使用开放的 "免费联赛 "预测功能进行分析。
(3)、在详情页面上,已自动为你选择并计算好本场对阵的分析结果。如果您也想要查看此联赛的其他比赛的分析,请分别选择好主、客两队名称(主队与客队名称不能相同),点击“Submit”按钮即可。
(4)、计算结果数据说明(重点数据含义):
①、主队/客队预期进球数: 根据泊松分布公式模型计算出的主客队各自理论上的进球数
②、主队获胜概率/平局概率/客队获胜概率: 根据泊松分布公式模型计算出的此场比赛出现胜、平、负结果各自的概率百分比,此结果为下方“比分概率分布”表的具体各个胜、平、负比分概率的总和。
例如: 平局概率 = (0:0)+(1:1)+(2:2)+(3:3)+(4:4)+(5:5)+(6:6)+(7:7)概率(表格斜线上蓝色概率数值)总和
③、进球数概率分布: 根据泊松分布公式模型计算出的主客队各自在本场比赛中进几个球的概率
④、比分概率分布: 根据泊松分布公式模型计算出的本场比赛出现的具体比分的概率
3、计算结果的基本分析
①、工具计算出来的某一结果的概率,概率值越大,越可能会出现此结果;概率值越小,出现此结果的可能性就越低。
②、您可以将此工具计算出的结果与赔率概率进行对比,如果您擅长欧赔分析,就能通过对比两个结果的差异找到比赛的真正走向,特别是当两个结果差异较大时,可能会出现冷门(注:此方法仅为个人观点,并不代表一定会出现冷门,请自行分析参考,仅做比赛需要注意的地方!的比赛只是提示需要注意的比赛)。