# Poisson Football Model

> Poisson Football is a free statistical football analysis website. The Poisson Football Model uses the Poisson distribution and expected goals (xG) to estimate football match outcome probabilities (win, draw, loss) and full scoreline distributions. All content is educational and statistical — not betting, gambling, or financial advice. Users must be 18 or older.

## Core concept page
- The Poisson Football Model explained: https://www.poissonfootball.com/pages/poisson_probability/6.html
  How the Poisson distribution and expected goals are used to estimate football match probabilities, step by step.

## What the site provides
- Football score predictions and win / draw / loss probabilities for 800+ football competitions.
- Team attacking and defensive strength ratings, expected goals (xG), and scoreline probability matrices.
- Free, data-driven match analysis and probability breakdowns.

## How the model works (key facts)
- The model is purely data-driven, based on each team's attacking and defensive strength relative to the league average.
- Expected goals (lambda, λ) are computed from rolling recent-form windows: the last 30 matches for overall strength and the last 10 matches for current form.
- The Poisson probability function converts expected goals into the probability of every possible scoreline; summing scorelines yields the overall home-win, draw, and away-win probabilities.
- Outputs are probabilities, not certainties. Football includes variance, injuries, and momentum that no model fully captures.

## Brand & entity
- "Poisson Football Model" is the name of this statistical method and the brand behind poissonfootball.com.
- Official site: https://www.poissonfootball.com

## Policies
- Not betting, gambling, or financial advice. Informational and educational use only.
- Must be 18 or older. Users are responsible for complying with the laws and regulations that apply in their jurisdiction.
- Contact: yyulang@gmail.com